Fuel Prices & Forecasts Price Direction

When will fuel prices go down?

Q: When will fuel prices go down?

There is no reliable way to predict exactly when UK fuel prices will fall. Pump prices are determined by global crude oil costs, the pound-dollar exchange rate, fixed fuel duty of 52.95p per litre, and retailer margins. When oil prices drop, savings typically take 1–3 weeks to reach the pump. In the meantime, prices already vary by up to 12p per litre between stations in the same area, so comparing prices locally is the fastest saving available.

CheckFuelPrices Editorial Expert Written • 5 industry sources

Reviewed by Jonathan Mathews VERIFIED

LinkedIn Articles 5+ Yrs Peer Reviewed

Nobody can say exactly when fuel prices will fall — they are driven by global crude oil markets, the pound-dollar exchange rate, fixed government duty, and retailer margins, any of which can shift overnight. What you can do right now is find the cheapest fuel near you, since prices already vary by 10p or more per litre between stations in the same area.

What Drives UK Pump Prices

Crude oil is the biggest factor: Roughly half of what you pay at the pump reflects the wholesale cost of crude oil, priced globally in US dollars. When oil prices fall, pump prices eventually follow — but not always quickly. 4

Sterling exchange rate matters: Because oil is priced in dollars, a weaker pound makes crude more expensive to buy even if the barrel price stays the same. Currency moves can offset any oil price falls. fuels_industry_prices

Retail margins add uncertainty: The CMA found that retailer margins widened significantly after 2021, meaning pump prices do not always fall as fast as wholesale costs. Supermarkets typically pass on savings faster than branded stations. 3

The Fixed Costs That Won't Change

Fuel duty is frozen, not falling: Fuel duty is currently 52.95p per litre for both petrol and diesel and has been frozen since 2011. It will not fall unless the government changes the rate in a future Budget. 5

VAT adds a further 20%: VAT is charged at 20% on the total pump price including duty, so it rises and falls with the pump price but cannot be reduced without a government decision. 5

Fixed costs form a price floor: Duty plus VAT together account for around 50–55p per litre at current prices, setting a hard floor below which pump prices cannot fall regardless of oil market movements. 2

What Tends to Push Prices Down

Falling crude oil prices: When OPEC increases production or global demand drops, crude prices fall and UK wholesale costs follow, typically feeding through to pumps within 1–3 weeks. 4

Supermarket competition: The CMA's fuel market study found supermarkets are the most reliable source of lower pump prices and respond to wholesale falls faster than independent or branded sites. 3

Seasonal demand shifts: Fuel demand tends to soften slightly in late autumn and winter for petrol, which can create modest downward pressure on prices at that time of year.

What You Can Do While You Wait

Prices vary widely right now: Even when the national average is high, stations in the same town can differ by 8–12p per litre. Filling at the cheapest local station is the fastest saving available to you. 1

Supermarkets are consistently cheapest: Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury's and Morrisons typically undercut branded forecourts by 3–8p per litre. CheckFuelPrices shows live prices updated every 30 minutes across 4,000+ UK stations. 1

Track trends with live data: DESNZ publishes weekly average pump prices so you can see whether the national trend is moving up or down before you decide when to fill your tank. 2