Fuel Prices & Forecasts
Price Direction
Are fuel prices going up?
CheckFuelPrices Editorial
Expert Written • 5 industry sources
UK fuel prices fluctuate week to week and are driven primarily by global crude oil prices, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, and retailer margins. The DESNZ publishes weekly average pump prices so you can track the current direction with precision.
What Drives UK Pump Prices
Crude oil is the biggest factor:
Around 40–50% of what you pay at the pump reflects the wholesale cost of crude oil, which is priced in US dollars and traded globally. When oil rises, pump prices typically follow within days.
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Exchange rate amplifies changes:
Because oil is priced in dollars, a weaker pound makes imports more expensive even if the barrel price stays flat. Sterling movements can add or subtract pennies per litre independently of oil markets.
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Retailer margins add volatility:
The CMA found that retailer margins widened significantly after the 2022 price spike and did not fully fall back, meaning pump prices can stay elevated even when wholesale costs drop.
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The Role of Fuel Duty and VAT
Fuel duty is currently 52.95p per litre:
This flat duty rate applies to both petrol and diesel and has been frozen since March 2022. It is the single largest fixed component of the pump price.
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VAT adds a further 20%:
VAT is charged on the total pump price including duty, so when wholesale prices rise, the VAT take also rises automatically. Together, duty and VAT typically account for around 55–60% of what you pay.
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Any duty change is a Budget decision:
Fuel duty can only change via a government fiscal event. The freeze introduced in 2022 saved drivers roughly 5p per litre compared to the planned rate.
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How to Track Whether Prices Are Rising Right Now
DESNZ weekly data:
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero publishes updated average petrol and diesel pump prices every Tuesday, covering the previous Monday. This is the most authoritative week-by-week tracker.
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Prices vary significantly by location:
National averages can mask big local differences. Supermarkets are typically 3–8p per litre cheaper than motorway services, and prices in rural areas are often higher than urban centres.
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Live station prices near you:
CheckFuelPrices updates prices from 4,000+ UK stations every 30 minutes using CMA open data, so you can see exactly what's on offer in your area today rather than relying on national averages.
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Sources
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