Fuel Prices & Forecasts
Price Direction
Are petrol prices going up?
CheckFuelPrices Editorial
Expert Written • 5 industry sources
UK petrol prices rise and fall based on global crude oil prices, the pound-dollar exchange rate, fuel duty, and retailer margins. The DESNZ publishes weekly average pump prices so you can track the current direction — and live data from CheckFuelPrices shows what stations near you are charging right now.
What Drives UK Petrol Prices Up or Down
Crude oil is the biggest factor:
Crude oil accounts for roughly half the cost of a litre of petrol at the pump. When the oil price rises — driven by OPEC decisions, geopolitical events, or demand — pump prices typically follow within days.
5
Exchange rate matters too:
Oil is priced in US dollars globally, so a weaker pound makes imports more expensive and pushes pump prices up even if the crude price stays flat.
5
Retailer margins can add to the pressure:
The CMA found that supermarket and forecourt margins widened significantly after 2022, meaning pump prices do not always fall as quickly as wholesale costs do.
4
The Fixed Cost You Cannot Escape: Fuel Duty
Fuel duty is frozen but still large:
Fuel duty is currently 52.95p per litre for both petrol and diesel, frozen since March 2022 after the 5p temporary cut was made permanent. It is a flat charge regardless of crude prices.
3
VAT adds another layer:
20% VAT is applied on top of the pump price including duty, so roughly 30p in every litre goes to VAT at current price levels. Together, tax accounts for around 60% of what you pay.
3
How to Track Current Price Movement
Weekly government data:
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) publishes average UK petrol and diesel prices every Tuesday, giving a reliable week-on-week picture of price direction.
2
Live station-level prices:
National averages mask big local differences. CheckFuelPrices updates prices from over 4,000 UK stations every 30 minutes using CMA open data, so you can see exactly what nearby stations are charging today.
1
What You Can Do About It
Supermarkets are consistently cheaper:
Supermarket forecourts — Asda, Tesco, Sainsbury's, and Morrisons — typically undercut branded stations by 3–8p per litre, making them the first place to check when prices are rising.
1
Timing and location still make a difference:
Even in a rising market, prices vary by several pence per litre within a few miles. Checking live prices before a long journey or a large fill-up is the most practical way to reduce the impact of any price increase.
1
Sources
Ask a follow-up
Sign in to ask follow-up questions
Create a free account to ask unlimited questions and get personalised fuel answers.
See live petrol prices near you
Updated every 30 minutes from 4,000+ UK stations — search by postcode, town, or GPS.
Find Fuel Prices