Britain could face fuel rationing within weeks if disruptions to global oil supplies continue, energy experts have warned. The Strait of Hormuz – through which around 20% of the world’s oil typically flows – remains largely closed due to the ongoing Middle East conflict.
What This Means for UK Fuel Supplies
The UK consumes approximately 1.4 million barrels of oil per day. Domestic production from the North Sea covers roughly half of that demand, with the remainder relying on imports.
Nick Butler, former head of strategy at BP, told Times Radio: “At the moment, the Strait of Hormuz is almost completely closed, and we’re losing about 20 million barrels a day. That’s one-fifth of global demand. If this continues, there will be a real shortage of supply worldwide, including in the UK.”
Shipping analysts from Lloyd’s List suggest that even with military escorts, oil flows through the strait might only recover to 8-10% of normal levels.
Could Rationing Happen?
Industry figures indicate the government may need to activate emergency contingency powers if shortages worsen. These powers could include:
- Restricting the amount of fuel each driver can purchase
- Limiting petrol station operating hours
- Prioritising fuel deliveries to emergency services and public transport
- Controlling distribution to protect essential services like hospitals, schools, and food delivery networks
Butler warned that without proper preparation, the crisis could trigger panic buying within three to four weeks.
UK’s Reduced Refining Capacity
Professor Paul de Leeuw from the Energy Transition Institute at Robert Gordon University highlighted Britain’s vulnerability to supply shocks.
Only four oil refineries remain operational in the UK today, down from 17 in the 1970s. This reduced capacity means Britain is more reliant on imported refined fuel, not just crude oil.
“We are not going to run out of oil,” he said, “but we could experience a period when we need to prioritise supply to protect essential services and vulnerable communities.”
He also noted that Britain’s energy imports – mainly from the United States and Norway – could be redirected to countries willing to pay higher prices if global competition for supply intensifies.
What Other Countries Are Doing
Several countries reliant on Gulf energy have already begun implementing rationing measures:
- Bangladesh: Restricted petrol and diesel sales at forecourts
- India: Prioritised household gas supplies over industrial use
The UK has not yet introduced any restrictions, but contingency plans exist under existing emergency powers.
What Drivers Should Do Now
There is currently no shortage of fuel at UK forecourts. However, with prices already at 20-month highs and supply uncertainty ahead, drivers should:
Don’t panic buy – Rushing to fill up creates the very shortages everyone fears. If you have half a tank, you don’t need to queue today.
Fill up when you normally would – Stick to your usual routine. Tanker deliveries are continuing as normal.
Shop around for prices – With price variations of up to 50p per litre between forecourts, checking CheckFuelPrices before filling up could save you £10-25 per tank.
Check fuel availability – Use our crowdsourced availability reports to see which stations near you have fuel in stock and avoid wasted journeys.
Drive efficiently – Make every tank go further by driving smoothly, checking tyre pressures, and cutting non-essential trips.
The Current Picture
As of this week, average UK fuel prices stand at:
- Petrol (E10): 142.7p per litre
- Diesel (B7): 163.2p per litre
Prices have risen sharply since the conflict began on February 28, with petrol up around 8.5p and diesel up approximately 17.5p per litre. Further increases are expected while oil remains above $100 a barrel.
Stay Informed
We’ll continue monitoring the situation and updating prices daily. Bookmark CheckFuelPrices for the latest prices and availability reports in your area.
If rationing measures are introduced, we’ll provide full details on how they affect drivers and where to find fuel.