UK drivers should prepare for rising fuel prices in the coming weeks as conflict between the US, Israel and Iran sends shockwaves through global oil markets. Motoring groups are warning that petrol prices could reach record levels within days if the disruption continues.
Where Prices Stand Now
As of last week, average UK petrol prices sat at 131.71p per litre, with diesel at 141.46p. These figures represented a period of relative stability – petrol had barely moved (up just 0.1p) and diesel was unchanged week-on-week.
Year-on-year, drivers had been enjoying significant savings: petrol was 7.9p cheaper than February 2025, while diesel was down 5.4p. That calm now looks set to end.
What’s Happening?
Conflict has spread across the Middle East after the US and Israel carried out strikes on Iran on Saturday, which were followed by retaliatory Iranian strikes on targets in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq. The country’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a targeted attack on Saturday, and top officials have vowed not to negotiate with the United States.
The key concern for fuel prices is the Strait of Hormuz – the narrow passage that provides the only route from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, through which around 20 per cent of the world’s gas and oil is shipped.
At least three vessels near the Strait of Hormuz were struck by an “unknown projectile” over the weekend, according to the UK Maritime Trade Organisation. At least 150 tankers dropped anchor in the open Gulf waters beyond the strait on Sunday, suggesting significant disruption.
Iran has warned vessels not to pass through the strait, with international shipping coming to an effective standstill at the entrance to the passage.
How High Could Prices Go?
Between the evening of Friday 27 February and Sunday 1 March, the price of Brent crude oil rose from $73 to $80 per barrel – a rise of over 10 per cent.
AA president Edmund King has issued a stark warning. He predicted that petrol prices could return to levels last seen at the start of 2026, when a litre of petrol was an average of 135.7p, compared with as low as 131.9p last month.
That would represent a rise of around 4p per litre from current levels – adding roughly £2 to a 50-litre fill.
The RAC’s head of policy, Simon Williams, outlined the potential impact at different oil price levels: “If oil were to climb to and stay at the $80 a barrel mark, then drivers could expect to pay an average of 136 pence for petrol. At $90, we’d be looking at over 140 pence a litre and $100 would take us nearer to 150 pence.”
To put that in context: at 150p per litre, a 50-litre tank of petrol would cost £75 – nearly £10 more than the £65.85 it costs at today’s average prices.
The AA adds that volatility in the market combined with the planned reversal of the 5p fuel duty cut could push prices to 142.5p per litre – equal to the highest level registered before the pandemic.
The Fuel Duty Factor
Adding to concerns is the planned increase in fuel duty. The 5p-per-litre cut introduced in March 2022 in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is being reversed. Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced at November’s Budget that this would begin with a 1p increase in September this year, followed by 2p in December and the final 2p in March 2027.
If oil prices remain elevated when these increases take effect, drivers could face a double hit.
What Should Drivers Do?
Mr King said: “There is no need for drivers to break their refuelling routine. It takes time for cost increases to work their way through to the pump.”
With prices potentially varying by 20p or more per litre between stations during volatile periods, checking prices before you fill up becomes more important than ever.
How Long Will This Last?
The duration of any price spike depends entirely on how the conflict develops. Jorge Leon, senior vice president at energy intelligence firm Rystad Energy, said that if the strait was blocked, the resulting spike in oil prices could directly impact UK consumers.
He warned that Iran is “taking quite a hawkish approach at the moment” and added: “Even if Iran shows signs of de-escalation, it could take a few weeks for shipping to return to normal as traffic clears and operators remain hesitant to use the strait.”
It’s worth noting that despite increasing tensions, the price of oil remains well below the highs seen during Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine, when the cost of oil soared to $114 per barrel, rising a few months later to a peak of $119.
Government Response
The Prime Minister’s official spokesman said: “The Government is monitoring the situation closely. The UK benefits from strong and diverse security of energy supplies. The Energy Secretary (Ed Miliband) spoke to the executive director of the International Energy Agency (Dr Fatih Birol) over the weekend.”
The spokesman added: “There are currently no reported impacts to UK fuel supply.”
What This Means For Your Wallet
Here’s how rising prices could affect the cost of filling a 50-litre tank:
| Scenario | Petrol Price | Cost Per Tank | Increase vs Today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current average | 131.71p | £65.85 | – |
| Return to January levels | 135.7p | £67.85 | +£2.00 |
| Oil at $80/barrel | 136p | £68.00 | +£2.15 |
| Oil at $90/barrel | 140p | £70.00 | +£4.15 |
| Oil at $100/barrel | 150p | £75.00 | +£9.15 |
| Worst case (with duty rise) | 142.5p | £71.25 | +£5.40 |
For drivers filling up weekly, even a return to January price levels would cost an additional £104 per year.
The Bottom Line
After weeks of stability and year-on-year savings, UK fuel prices are set to rise. The extent depends on how the conflict develops, but drivers should expect gradual increases over the coming weeks.
The best defence is to shop around – during volatile periods, the gap between the cheapest and most expensive stations in your area often widens significantly.