The relentless climb in UK fuel prices has finally paused. After 43 consecutive days of increases, petrol and diesel prices have stopped rising following the temporary ceasefire in the Gulf, according to the RAC.

The news offers the first glimmer of hope for drivers since the Middle East conflict began on February 28 – and prices could start falling within days.

Where Prices Stand Now

  • Petrol: 158p per litre – up from 133p before the conflict (25p increase)
  • Diesel: 192p per litre – up from 142p before the conflict (50p increase)

The cost of filling a family car has risen dramatically over the past six weeks:

  • Petrol: £14 more per tank than late February
  • Diesel: £27 more per tank than late February

Prices Could Fall “Within Days”

RAC head of policy Simon Williams said: “Wholesale fuel costs are now significantly lower than they were at the start of the month, so forecourt prices should begin to come down.”

He added: “As things stand, we’d expect petrol and diesel to drop by several pence a litre in the next week or so. It will be very interesting to see if this plays out as the data indicates. We hope it does as drivers could do with some relief at the pumps.”

The “Pump-Price Postcode Lottery”

However, not all drivers will see price cuts at the same time. AA president Edmund King warned of a “pump-price postcode lottery” affecting when – and whether – local prices fall.

“If you live in a town with competitive retailers, you may see some movement. If you live somewhere where they all watch each other to see who budges first, you won’t,” he said.

This makes shopping around more important than ever. Stations in competitive areas may cut prices first, while others lag behind.

Why Diesel Rose More Than Petrol

Diesel has increased by 50p per litre compared to petrol’s 25p rise. The RAC explained this disparity:

  • Harder to refine – Diesel requires more intensive refining processes than petrol
  • Import dependency – The UK imports around half of its diesel from abroad
  • Global demand – Diesel demand is exceptionally high worldwide for freight and shipping

Still Below 2022 Peak

While current prices are painful, they remain below the records set following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in summer 2022:

  • 2022 petrol peak: 191.5p per litre
  • 2022 diesel peak: 199p per litre
  • Current petrol: 158p per litre
  • Current diesel: 192p per litre

Diesel is now approaching those historic highs, but petrol remains some way below its 2022 peak.

Will Retailers Pass On Savings?

There’s a well-documented concern about “rocket and feather” pricing in the fuel retail sector – prices rocket up when costs rise but float down like a feather when costs fall.

The Competition and Markets Authority found evidence of this practice in late 2022. Since then, the CMA has carried out regular monitoring of forecourt prices, and announced last month that this scrutiny would be intensified in response to surging energy costs.

Drivers and motoring groups will be watching closely to see whether retailers pass on wholesale savings promptly – or drag their feet.

What Caused the Crisis?

The outbreak of the US-Israeli war with Iran led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that usually carries approximately 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.

This closure sent global fuel prices soaring. Crude oil is a key ingredient in petrol and diesel, meaning higher wholesale costs translated directly into more expensive fill-ups for drivers.

The temporary ceasefire has brought crude oil prices down from their recent peaks, and with it the cost of fuel on wholesale markets. Whether this translates into sustained pump price reductions depends on the ceasefire holding.

What Drivers Should Do Now

Shop around aggressively – With some stations likely to cut prices before others, checking prices before every fill-up is essential. Use CheckFuelPrices to find the cheapest fuel near you.

Watch for early movers – Independent forecourts buying fuel on a ‘spot’ basis may reduce prices before larger chains. Regular price checking helps you spot the deals first.

Compare stations in your area – The “postcode lottery” means price cuts will appear unevenly. Stations in competitive areas may move faster than those in less competitive locations.

Don’t assume all prices are falling – Just because wholesale costs have dropped doesn’t mean your local station has cut prices yet. Check before you fill up.

Find the Cheapest Fuel Near You

With prices finally stabilising and potential reductions ahead, now is the time to shop around. Use CheckFuelPrices to compare prices at stations near you.

Our data comes directly from the government’s Fuel Finder Scheme – the same database that lets drivers compare the cost of fuel at petrol stations across the UK, updated within 30 minutes of any price change.

We’ll continue tracking prices daily and report as soon as meaningful reductions appear at the pumps.